The Bali conference on climate change is over. But the fight against climate change has only just begun. The message from Bali is the fight will be downright brutal and selfish. Let us cut through the histrionics of the Bali conference to understand that as far as an agreement is concerned, the world has not moved an inch from where it stood on climate some 17 years ago, when negotiations began. The only difference is that emissions have increased; climate change is at dangerous levels. Only if we drastically cut emissions, will we succeed in avoiding a full-blown catastrophe.

Let’s understand what was agreed (or not) in Bali. The conference ended with an action plan-an agreement to begin talks, since the world recognized the need for deep emission cuts and an end to negotiations in two years. For developed countries, the agreement will include “measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions (my emphasis), including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives (again my emphasis)…ensuring comparability of efforts among them, taking into account their…circumstance”.

Understand now what this un legalese means. Firstly, no targets have been set for developed nations to cut emissions; no timeframe has been set by when emission would have to peak and then fall sharply. Secondly, it accepts that the countries will take on actions, not commitments. Countries will have voluntary targets, which can be quantified or be in the form of reduction objectives. This negates (if not destroys) the previous global consensus (leaving out renegades like the us) that the developed (rich and high carbon debt world) must take on emission-reduction commitments, the targets must be agreed through multilateral processes and these must be legally binding and enforceable.

Now compare this consensus to the first draft of the Bali action plan and tell me if you think we won or lost in Bali. Under the agreement, “The Annex 1 countries (the already industrialized countries) as a group would reduce emissions in the range of 25-40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and that global emissions of greenhouse gases would need to peak in the next 10-15 years and be reduced to very low levels, well below half of the levels in 2000 by 2050.” A no-brainer conclusion, I would think.

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